Key races to watch in Washington with one week to get ballots in
Are we in for a Red Wave in the 2022 mid-term election? Or will Americans firmly opposed to MAGA politics of former President Donald Trump and his supporters go blue in an attempt to keep such ideology at bay? Perhaps the sagging approval numbers for President Joe Biden will drag other Democrats down. Where does the U.S. Supreme Court’s Roe decision factor into the election? Or gun control with the post-pandemic return of mass shootings?
The truth is you can find a poll somewhere to match whatever hope it is you hold in answer to those questions and we won’t truly know the answer until the votes are tabulated.
It’s clear many candidates also don’t know exactly how those issues and events such as the January 6 attack and economic concerns will impact voters’ decisions. Then there is the question of whether younger voters who make up a huge percentage of the blue base but tend to turn out to vote much less for mid-terms will have sufficient concern to lure them to the ballot box.
Even in traditionally blue states such as Washington, there is a lack of confidence in races where there would not have been in previous elections.
On the national stage there are a few key races being watched in Washington State.
Top billing: Murray-D vs Smiley-R fight it out
At the top of your ballot, you’ll find the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Patty Murray and Republican newcomer Tiffany Smiley.
Tiffany Smiley pushes for debate with Patty Murray in U.S. Senate Race
“Senator Patty Murray started running negative ads attacking Tiffany in June, which for a 30-year incumbent to go out and drop over a million dollars, basically lying about her opponent and attacking them is interesting and I think showed that they were at least somewhat concerned,” said State Republican Party Chair Caleb Heimlich.
“It’ll be interesting to see over the next two weeks where that one stands,” he added.
Democrats were mostly confident in the 71-year-old Senator who is seeking her 6th term as Senator.
“Look, a lot of money is coming in Tiffany Smiley’s campaign coffers from outside actors primarily outside of the state of Washington. She’s a Trump-loving MAGA Republican,” Democratic State Party Chair Tina Podlidowski said. “And she’s raised almost as much as Herschel Walker has raised in Georgia. So that should be concerning to all sorts of folks. But what they shouldn’t be concerned about is who stands for families and veterans and kids and women in this state. And that’s Senator Patty Murray.”
But Democrats are in no way saying this thing is a done deal.
“We think Senator Murray has a tough race ahead of her but we know that it’s a race that she’s going to win, but no one should take anything for granted in that race,” said Podlidowski.
A recent Seattle Times poll put Murray about 18 points ahead of Smiley. Smiley’s reaction to that news when asked by KTTH’s Jason Rantz recently, “I am not worried one bit about that poll,” Smiley said, noting she had outraised Murray’s campaign in the first quarter and expected to do so again in the second.
Both campaigns reported raising about $2.6 million for the second quarter shortly after that interview.
But Murray has certainly been more visible at this point in the election, holding multiple press conferences on key issues like Roe and gun safety, among many others. She also recently wrapped a two-week cross-state campaign tour where she was asked about her confidence level in her ability to hold the seat.
“I always say every election is the most important. I feel that from the bottom of my soul, our democracy is at stake in this election, our ability to cast our votes and fight for what we think is important, and to work to solve the complex problems we have today. Not with sound bites, but with real solutions. That’s what’s on the ballot today and every vote counts, every vote matters. And I am looking forward to going back and working with all these great people to continue to help put Washington first,” she replied.
Senator Murray gave a more direct answer when asked by KIRO 7 whether she was worried about losing the race.
Absolutely not,” she answered. “What I’m focused on is making sure Washington state voters know what their choice is.”
The Murray-Smiley race is statewide so every voter in Washington has a chance to decide this one.
Hobbs facing 8-person gauntlet in Secretary of State Race
The other statewide race also could be interesting as Republicans attempt to retake the Secretary of State chair. Former state Senator – and moderate Democrat – Steve Hobbs was appointed to the office following Republican Kim Wyman’s early exit when she took a post in the other Washington.
Hobbs’ appointment marked the first time a Democrat had held the state’s top election post in nearly 60 years and there will be no shortage of democrats attempting to retake it from him.
It’s a crowded race with eight candidates, including Hobbs, another Democrat, four Republicans, a non-partisan, and one candidate who says he prefers the “union“ party.
So far the top three money raisers are Hobbs, who has raised the most at $392,974, followed by Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson, who is running without party affiliation citing her very strong belief that political parties do not belong in the Secretary of State’s Office, at $159,745. One of the four Republicans is in third for money raised– former state lawmaker Mark Miloscia –who currently heads up the conservative Family Policy Institute. He’s raised $57,955.
The three other Republicans in the race include state Senator Keith Wagoner, health care data scientist Bob Hagglund, and Tamborine Borrelli who serves as Director of Washington Election Integrity Coalition United which has sued county elections offices over the belief the 2020 election was fraudulent. Rounding out the eight candidates are Democrat Marquez Tiggs and Kurtis Engle who prefers the “union” party and warns in his voter’s guide statement that, “if certain dominoes fall certain ways, we could have half a million Chinese troops in Western Washington.”
Election security, voter trust, and misinformation are central to the campaign issues in this race.
“I think that Steve Hobbs has done a terrific job as Secretary of State. He has incredible experience and background in cybersecurity issues, which everyone is thinking about when it comes to our voting system,” Democratic State Party Chair Tina Podlidowski said. “He continues the tradition of having a safe and secure all mail-in ballots system.”
“But he also was doing the work around disinformation,” she continued. “I think what we’re seeing the Republicans do by trying to do things like surveille ballot boxes or intimidate voters in that different way, is to keep people from turning in their ballots.”
“We have not endorsed in that race,” said GOP state Chair Caleb Heimlich. “That will be interesting to see kind of who emerges in that in the top two, kind of a wide-open field statewide.”
Schrier fights to hold seat in 8th district
Another race where Republicans have yet to endorse a candidate is the 8th Congressional District seat which is among the top contents to watch on the national stage as Democrat Kim Schrier tries to hold the seat she snagged from Republicans in 2018 flipping it blue for the first time since it was created in 1983.
Republicans want back the seat they had long held.
“We’ve got three primary Republicans running that are raising money,” Heimlich said, referring to Reagan Dunn, a longtime King County Councilmember whose late mother held the seat from 1993-2005. Matt Larkin who previously had an unsuccessful run at taking the state Attorney General’s seat and Republican State Rep. Jesse Jensen.
“Republicans are only five seats away from winning the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The eighth congressional district is rated as a toss-up by most national prognosticators. So there’s going to be lots of money pouring in lots of resources there and ultimately, obviously, it’s up to the people that vote. But I’m anxious to see who emerges on the Republican side, who the Republican voters prefer, and who they select. We have not made an endorsement in that race and so after the primary, we will try and rally support behind that challenger and that’s a big chance for us to flip the seat,” Heimlich explained.
While many have pointed to Dunn as the front runner to challenge Schrier, Heimlich is not so sure just yet.
“Maybe, maybe, I mean, he’s obviously on the King County Council. He’s got the name ID but when you look at money raised so far through the June 30 Federal Elections Commission filings Jesse Jensen has actually raised more money than Reagan. And then Matt Larkin has invested a pretty significant sum of his own money. I think he’s given himself either 500 or $700,000. And so there I think that three of them are actually closer than maybe people think,” explained Heimlich.
Republican Matt Larkin to run against Rep. Schrier in 8th district
Democrats admit it will be a tough race for Schrier but expressed confidence in her ability to hold the seat, which has been a tight contest for her every time.
“Kim has a tough district. It is still a district that leans democratic but by a sliver, so we’re not taking anything for granted,” said Podlidowski.
“But Kim Schrier since 2018 has delivered for the people of the eighth congressional district,” she added. “She has done more town halls, she’s delivered more on agricultural issues, on infrastructure issues on things like drug pricing, $35 insulin, for example, than Republicans have done in decades of holding that office … We are confident no matter which of the anti-choice Republican men, the only female doctor in the Congress is running against in the general election. Dr. Kim Schrier is going to come out ahead.”
3rd and 4th district elections
Other congressional races where incumbents are at risk include the 3rd Congressional District where Jaime Hererra-Beutler is facing backlash over her vote to impeach President Donald Trump and the Fourth where Dan Newhouse has similar concerns.
Washington GOP Rep. Newhouse: Investigation into Capitol riot needs ‘balanced approach’
“The 3rd is a very interesting race in that the Republican incumbent Jaime Herrera-Beutler is having quite a challenge from the far right, the Trump supported candidate Joe Kent. We’ve got a terrific candidate, a woman who’s a small business person, Maria Perez, who’s running in that particular race,” Podlidowski said.
“It’s quite possible Maria makes it into the general. The question is, who is she going to be running against? Is it Jamie or is it Joe Kent? And if it’s Joe, Kent Well, I can’t imagine that the people of Southwest Washington want a MAGA loving Trump supporting GOP Republican in office around those different things,” she added “So that’ll be an interesting race.
“In the 4th Congressional District, Doug White is definitely doing everything that he possibly can to win that race. Another fourth-generation farmer from the Yakima area, who went out, created his own business has worked around the globe and understands the trade issues of the Fourth Congressional District and their agricultural products,” Podlidowski said. “So he’s giving Dan Newhouse and a couple of MAGA-loving Republicans Brad Klippert and Lauren Culp who still hasn’t conceded the gubernatorial race, a run for their money in the fourth. So potential pickups in both those races for Democrats.”
But Republicans see the third as most likely a Republican vs Republican contest.
“The Democrat is not particularly strong or raising a lot of resources. So most of the focus has been on the Republican candidate side. And so again, we’ll see who comes through over the next two weeks,” Heimlich said.
“I mean, there’s a chance two Republicans go through in the third with our top-two primary. But there’s also a chance that the Democrat snags one of the two top spots, and then it’s whoever gets the most votes in August, will be in a very good position to hold on to that seat because as I said, the Democrats have not put up a lot of opposition or put a lot of focus into trying to flip that seat. So in the third, and in the fourth in Central Washington, it’s more of a primary campaign to see who comes through on the Republican side,” he added.
Republicans eye weak legislative districts as Democrats batten down against Red Wave
All 98 Washington state House seats are up in the air this election cycle along with 25 of 49 seats in the Washington state Senate.
Republicans would need to pick up nine state representative seats to get the majority in the House, while they need four seats to take over the Senate. That’s definitely a long shot.
The Republican strategy and Democratic response
Even if Republicans managed to flip a couple of seats over in the Senate, it would have a big impact on the Democratic majority’s ability to get the 25 votes necessary to pass some of the more progressive bills. For Republicans, the strategy is to paint Democrats as having gone too far to the left, continuing to link them to the “defund the police” movement, and Seattle politics while also blaming them for failing to pass anything addressing tax relief amid soaring inflation despite reaping better than expected revenue.
But as far as Democrats are concerned, that’s a lot of noise. They believe that voters will understand what’s at stake, pointing to racist attacks, gun violence, and the ever-looming threat of MAGA-backed leadership.
But Democrats are voicing some concern about the current GOP strategy.
“I think that they’re trying to play on a lot of different issues and some racist tropes, frankly, I mean, we have three African-American legislators in the 44th district, April Berg, Brandy Donaghy as well as John Lovick, they are incredibly great legislators, well respected, have done that work,” State Democratic Party Chair Tina Podlodowski said. “They’ve also been the target of racist attacks, their signs being defaced their signs being stolen, their campaign workers being accosted with racist comments and all of these different things.”
Podlodowski thinks that Republicans are failing to stop the encroachment of white supremacy in their party by not standing up to political extremists, especially as we see more hyper-nationalist paramilitary groups like the Oathkeepers and Proud Boys operate and plan attacks in the Pacific Northwest.
“As for the Republicans? Well, they’ve been silent,” Podlodowski said. “They haven’t said a thing about these. So I fear that the Republicans are trying to stir up hatred. They’re trying to stir up a little, a little bit of violence, frankly, by not saying anything and not calling their people out there, that’s not okay.”
The “soft” districts: The 26th and 44th Senate and House elections
One of the elections Podlodowski wanted to highlight as an example of this is the 44th district’s Senate election, which is likely to be between incumbent John Lovick and Republican first-time candidate Fredrick Heater.
But she believes voters will know the real deal when they see it.
“They’re trying to paint John Lovick, a 31-year veteran of the United States Coast Guard, as somebody who’s anti-American, give me a break,” said Podlodowski. “John Lovick is probably the most stand-up guy you will ever meet and an incredible American. They’re just throwing money after money after money on this from outside PACs and dark money PACs. This is outside money that the GOP is throwing against an incredible multi-term African-American legislator, stirring up anti-Americanism, stirring up anti-incumbency issues, but also stirring up racism, and violence, it’s not okay.”
In a similar situation, a black staffer working for the 44th District House Representative April Berg canvassing in a majority white neighborhood was harassed. State Republican Party Chair Caleb Heimlich disputed the idea that the party would allow these racist attacks to continue.
“I would certainly denounce any and all racist activity. That was obviously not done by anybody associated with our organization, otherwise, they would no longer be associated with our organization,” Heimlich said. “I think, unfortunately, in this political environment, there have been incidences of things like that on both sides. I mean, Senator Emily Randall was in the news for cheering the defacement of a billboard.”
The incident he is referring to is the vandalism of an anti-abortion billboard that incumbent Senator Emily Randall reposted encouragement of the defacement. Randall is currently running for reelection in the 26th district, and is set to face either David Crissman or Jesse Young depending on the results of the Republican primary on August 2.
“Republicans have been very consistent in every circumstance of condemning political violence and condemning racism … if we win, we will be gracious in victory, and if we lose, we will be gracious in defeat, Heimlich continued. “That’s what I think our election should be about. If the majority wins, it’s what the people want. So I would encourage everybody on all sides, not to resort to violence, certainly not to engage in racist behavior or activity, but to put the focus on the issues, and that’s what our candidates in our campaigns are doing.”
Still, Republicans have made clear they’re targeting the 44th District which they see as an opportunity to flip all three seats, including Senator Lovick’s Senate seat, which he was appointed to in 2021 after years of service in the state House, when Steve Hobbs exited the Senate to take over as Secretary of State.
He says Lovick’s Senate seat is one they’re watching closely along, with Brandy Donaghy’s House seat where she faces former Republican State Representative Mark Harmsworth who’s trying to return to the fold. Specifically by targeting issues which he says Washington democrats have neglected in favor of focusing exclusively on large metro areas like Seattle and Tacoma and leaving behind more rural and suburban districts.
“[Harmsworth] is somebody that has represented that district previously, he lost in 2018 when it was a blue wave,” Heimlich said. “Mark is a very sharp guy, he understands traffic and congestion. That’s a commuter district and people could have been kind of stuck, trying to get to work trying to get places and their priorities maybe are not always heard by a Democratic caucus that has been too focused on Seattle and has neglected other parts of the state.”
Heimlich says if things lean red Lovick’s Senate seat is potentially a fourth Senate seat pickup for the GOP. The others they think they can flip include Emily Randall’s Senate seat in the 26th District. Sen. Randall only won the seat by about 100 votes in the 2018 election, and that was with the advantage of the “blue wave” spurred by the backlash against former president Donald Trump.
The Democrats acknowledge the slim margin Randall had when she pulled that 2018 victory out but are confident that the work she has done in the past four years will be enough.
“Emily Randall has done the work since 2018. We are determined to win by more than 100 votes on this side of it. But her opponent Jessie Young, he’s cut from the same cloth as these MAGA Republicans, he hangs out with Three Percenters and Proud Boys. He’s been barred from being in the same room with a House staffer alone because he’s berated staff and has been inappropriate,” recalled Podldowski.
“They’re putting a ton of money behind a guy that’s not acceptable to have as any kind of employee, let alone somebody who’s elected and representing the people of the 26th District,” Podldowski continued. “We think Emily has really delivered whether it’s lower tolls on the Tacoma Narrows Bridge … We think Emily’s going to win in that one but we’re not taking anything for granted. We are going out there, knocking on every door, making phone calls, doing phone banking, making certain that Emily has all the support she needs to win.”
And do everything they can indeed, with the race in the 26th being the most expensive in the state, both campaigns have raised about $400,000 each with a combined $300,000 in outside money for marketing campaigns against each of them.
The 47th District
Republicans also see the Senate seat in the 47th District as a prime opportunity for a pickup.
“LD 47, which is Kent and Covington, our candidate there is Bill Boyce. Bill has been on the school board and is currently on the city council, and he’s a great member of the community, Heimlich said. “And so I think those are two [26th and 47th;] are really prime pickup opportunities for us where we’ve got quality candidates and a good opportunity to win.”
That’s not to say that state Democrats don’t also see opportunities to increase their hold over the House and Senate, where they have a 16-seat and seven-seat advantage, respectively.
The 42nd and 10th Districts
Specifically, Podlodowski points to the 42nd District Senate election between incumbent Sen. Simon Sefzik and democratic challenger Sharon Shoemake. Sefzik got appointed to the seat after the death of Sen. Doug Erickson, making this his first election campaign.
The 10th District is also up for grabs, which has historically oscillated between Democrats and Republicans. The election will be between Navy veteran Clyde Shavers and incumbent Rep. Greg Gilday.
“So lots of opportunities for us. I think about what Democrats have done in the last six years, when I started as state party chair,” Podlodowski said. “We had a one-seat minority in the state Senate, and a two-seat majority in the state House. Now we have a seven-seat majority in the state Senate and a 16-seat majority in the State House. Republicans have lost because they never delivered and because they kept things from happening. I know that my counterpart, the Republican chair [Heimlich,] is upset about that. We’ve been winning race after race after race, he would like to win some but it’s not going to be his year. Democrats are going to come back.”
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